Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/20/09 | 185 | 146 (78.9%) | 139 (75.1%) | 137 (74.1%) | 139 (75.1%) | 133 (71.9%) | 122 (65.9%) | 127 (68.6%) |
| 12/27/09 | 329 | 256 (77.8%) | 243 (73.9%) | 240 (72.9%) | 242 (73.6%) | 238 (72.3%) | 207 (62.9%) | 211 (64.1%) |
| 01/03/10 | 349 | 260 (74.5%) | 259 (74.2%) | 238 (68.2%) | 246 (70.5%) | 230 (65.9%) | 237 (67.9%) | 204 (58.5%) |
| 01/10/10 | 332 | 239 (72.0%) | 226 (68.1%) | 217 (65.4%) | 220 (66.3%) | 217 (65.4%) | 197 (59.3%) | 187 (56.3%) |
| 01/17/10 | 331 | 242 (73.1%) | 221 (66.8%) | 216 (65.3%) | 223 (67.4%) | 205 (61.9%) | 193 (58.3%) | 195 (58.9%) |
| 01/24/10 | 334 | 233 (69.8%) | 221 (66.2%) | 223 (66.8%) | 215 (64.4%) | 210 (62.9%) | 218 (65.3%) | 186 (55.7%) |
| 01/31/10 | 327 | 255 (78.0%) | 238 (72.8%) | 240 (73.4%) | 243 (74.3%) | 227 (69.4%) | 206 (63.0%) | 207 (63.3%) |
| 02/07/10 | 326 | 228 (69.9%) | 220 (67.5%) | 223 (68.4%) | 221 (67.8%) | 211 (64.7%) | 200 (61.3%) | 186 (57.1%) |
| 02/14/10 | 332 | 238 (71.7%) | 226 (68.1%) | 230 (69.3%) | 234 (70.5%) | 228 (68.7%) | 193 (58.1%) | 214 (64.5%) |
| 02/21/10 | 331 | 252 (76.1%) | 237 (71.6%) | 236 (71.3%) | 240 (72.5%) | 234 (70.7%) | 223 (67.4%) | 185 (55.9%) |
| 02/28/10 | 292 | 220 (75.3%) | 221 (75.7%) | 212 (72.6%) | 212 (72.6%) | 212 (72.6%) | 188 (64.4%) | 180 (61.6%) |
| 03/07/10 | 165 | 116 (70.3%) | 112 (67.9%) | 118 (71.5%) | 114 (69.1%) | 110 (66.7%) | 102 (61.8%) | 103 (62.4%) |
| Postseason | 126 | 88 (69.8%) | 86 (68.3%) | 81 (64.3%) | 86 (68.3%) | 77 (61.1%) | 70 (55.6%) | 73 (57.9%) |
| Total | 3759 | 2773 (73.8%) | 2649 (70.5%) | 2611 (69.5%) | 2635 (70.1%) | 2532 (67.4%) | 2356 (62.7%) | 2258 (60.1%) |
| Expected | 3759 | 2914 (77.5%) | 2864 (76.2%) | 2807 (74.7%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/20/09 | 185 | 0.310 | 0.282 | 0.223 | 0.263 | 0.026 | 0.146 | 0.053 |
| 12/27/09 | 329 | 0.289 | 0.282 | 0.221 | 0.197 | 0.015 | 0.127 | 0.057 |
| 01/03/10 | 349 | 0.176 | 0.148 | 0.115 | 0.162 | 0.005 | 0.047 | 0.025 |
| 01/10/10 | 332 | 0.138 | 0.108 | 0.078 | 0.067 | 0.002 | 0.028 | 0.020 |
| 01/17/10 | 331 | 0.173 | 0.140 | 0.118 | 0.116 | 0.006 | 0.037 | 0.032 |
| 01/24/10 | 334 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.156 | 0.167 | 0.010 | 0.060 | 0.042 |
| 01/31/10 | 327 | 0.108 | 0.070 | 0.077 | 0.061 | 0.002 | 0.017 | 0.021 |
| 02/07/10 | 326 | 0.149 | 0.124 | 0.105 | 0.095 | 0.018 | 0.033 | 0.027 |
| 02/14/10 | 332 | 0.155 | 0.121 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.001 | 0.037 | 0.013 |
| 02/21/10 | 331 | 0.124 | 0.072 | 0.075 | 0.088 | 0.020 | 0.028 | 0.012 |
| 02/28/10 | 292 | 0.218 | 0.182 | 0.176 | 0.133 | 0.027 | 0.047 | 0.049 |
| 03/07/10 | 165 | 0.019 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 0.018 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.009 |
| Postseason | 126 | 0.145 | 0.141 | 0.058 | 0.147 | 0.131 | 0.022 | 0.001 |
| Total | 3759 | 0.194 | 0.163 | 0.133 | 0.129 | 0.007 | 0.051 | 0.032 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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