Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/21/08 | 197 | 158 (80.2%) | 156 (79.2%) | 151 (76.6%) | 151 (76.6%) | 139 (70.6%) | 140 (71.1%) | 122 (61.9%) |
| 12/28/08 | 325 | 235 (72.3%) | 221 (68.0%) | 216 (66.5%) | 228 (70.2%) | 221 (68.0%) | 209 (64.3%) | 184 (56.6%) |
| 01/04/09 | 329 | 245 (74.5%) | 233 (70.8%) | 233 (70.8%) | 230 (69.9%) | 213 (64.7%) | 215 (65.3%) | 184 (55.9%) |
| 01/11/09 | 323 | 249 (77.1%) | 234 (72.4%) | 217 (67.2%) | 223 (69.0%) | 211 (65.3%) | 204 (63.2%) | 174 (53.9%) |
| 01/18/09 | 325 | 231 (71.1%) | 224 (68.9%) | 202 (62.2%) | 213 (65.5%) | 211 (64.9%) | 194 (59.7%) | 178 (54.8%) |
| 01/25/09 | 325 | 235 (72.3%) | 223 (68.6%) | 230 (70.8%) | 216 (66.5%) | 208 (64.0%) | 191 (58.8%) | 187 (57.5%) |
| 02/01/09 | 328 | 214 (65.2%) | 218 (66.5%) | 216 (65.9%) | 207 (63.1%) | 207 (63.1%) | 195 (59.5%) | 185 (56.4%) |
| 02/08/09 | 335 | 248 (74.0%) | 239 (71.3%) | 234 (69.9%) | 228 (68.1%) | 210 (62.7%) | 222 (66.3%) | 180 (53.7%) |
| 02/15/09 | 326 | 217 (66.6%) | 216 (66.3%) | 212 (65.0%) | 214 (65.6%) | 201 (61.7%) | 195 (59.8%) | 186 (57.1%) |
| 02/22/09 | 329 | 231 (70.2%) | 213 (64.7%) | 212 (64.4%) | 207 (62.9%) | 192 (58.4%) | 204 (62.0%) | 181 (55.0%) |
| 03/01/09 | 288 | 210 (72.9%) | 203 (70.5%) | 198 (68.8%) | 204 (70.8%) | 189 (65.6%) | 179 (62.2%) | 166 (57.6%) |
| 03/08/09 | 167 | 119 (71.3%) | 119 (71.3%) | 112 (67.1%) | 113 (67.7%) | 113 (67.7%) | 95 (56.9%) | 97 (58.1%) |
| Postseason | 127 | 90 (70.9%) | 85 (66.9%) | 79 (62.2%) | 81 (63.8%) | 89 (70.1%) | 76 (59.8%) | 62 (48.8%) |
| Total | 3724 | 2682 (72.0%) | 2584 (69.4%) | 2512 (67.5%) | 2515 (67.5%) | 2404 (64.6%) | 2319 (62.3%) | 2086 (56.0%) |
| Expected | 3724 | 2872 (77.1%) | 2816 (75.6%) | 2767 (74.3%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/21/08 | 197 | 0.244 | 0.202 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.016 | 0.082 | 0.051 |
| 12/28/08 | 325 | 0.257 | 0.235 | 0.198 | 0.148 | 0.000 | 0.113 | 0.048 |
| 01/04/09 | 329 | 0.193 | 0.178 | 0.117 | 0.104 | 0.002 | 0.079 | 0.007 |
| 01/11/09 | 323 | 0.111 | 0.092 | 0.065 | 0.062 | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.021 |
| 01/18/09 | 325 | 0.189 | 0.168 | 0.132 | 0.118 | 0.005 | 0.049 | 0.023 |
| 01/25/09 | 325 | 0.134 | 0.125 | 0.099 | 0.114 | 0.035 | 0.060 | 0.004 |
| 02/01/09 | 328 | 0.185 | 0.154 | 0.131 | 0.137 | 0.001 | 0.054 | 0.018 |
| 02/08/09 | 335 | 0.158 | 0.121 | 0.111 | 0.129 | 0.028 | 0.054 | 0.011 |
| 02/15/09 | 326 | 0.203 | 0.212 | 0.192 | 0.188 | 0.034 | 0.067 | 0.045 |
| 02/22/09 | 329 | 0.127 | 0.089 | 0.080 | 0.076 | 0.011 | 0.058 | 0.001 |
| 03/01/09 | 288 | 0.192 | 0.157 | 0.142 | 0.166 | 0.018 | 0.066 | 0.018 |
| 03/08/09 | 167 | 0.120 | 0.126 | 0.101 | 0.096 | 0.024 | 0.034 | 0.013 |
| Postseason | 127 | 0.191 | 0.209 | 0.172 | 0.248 | 0.135 | 0.055 | 0.002 |
| Total | 3724 | 0.191 | 0.170 | 0.139 | 0.131 | 0.006 | 0.065 | 0.020 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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