2005-2006 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/18/05 214 178 (83.2%) 167 (78.0%) 160 (74.8%) 166 (77.6%) 167 (78.0%) 147 (68.7%) 132 (61.7%)
12/25/05 249 189 (75.9%) 188 (75.5%) 181 (72.7%) 179 (71.9%) 166 (66.7%) 177 (71.1%) 163 (65.5%)
01/01/06 351 249 (70.9%) 232 (66.1%) 239 (68.1%) 225 (64.1%) 213 (60.7%) 200 (57.0%) 208 (59.3%)
01/08/06 319 203 (63.6%) 217 (68.0%) 215 (67.4%) 212 (66.5%) 204 (63.9%) 202 (63.3%) 188 (58.9%)
01/15/06 320 231 (72.2%) 225 (70.3%) 214 (66.9%) 210 (65.6%) 203 (63.4%) 192 (60.0%) 188 (58.8%)
01/22/06 322 227 (70.5%) 218 (67.7%) 225 (69.9%) 216 (67.1%) 205 (63.7%) 197 (61.2%) 199 (61.8%)
01/29/06 321 237 (73.8%) 225 (70.1%) 220 (68.5%) 209 (65.1%) 209 (65.1%) 193 (60.1%) 185 (57.6%)
02/05/06 313 216 (69.0%) 216 (69.0%) 213 (68.1%) 207 (66.1%) 204 (65.2%) 196 (62.6%) 181 (57.8%)
02/12/06 320 230 (71.9%) 224 (70.0%) 218 (68.1%) 219 (68.4%) 221 (69.1%) 204 (63.8%) 186 (58.1%)
02/19/06 317 229 (72.2%) 221 (69.7%) 216 (68.1%) 219 (69.1%) 220 (69.4%) 205 (64.7%) 188 (59.3%)
02/26/06 294 210 (71.4%) 207 (70.4%) 201 (68.4%) 200 (68.0%) 202 (68.7%) 181 (61.6%) 177 (60.2%)
03/05/06 158 114 (72.2%) 112 (70.9%) 116 (73.4%) 105 (66.5%) 104 (65.8%) 97 (61.4%) 96 (60.8%)
Postseason 103 74 (71.8%) 71 (68.9%) 66 (64.1%) 65 (63.1%) 63 (61.2%) 57 (55.3%) 53 (51.5%)
Total 3601 2587 (71.8%) 2523 (70.1%) 2484 (69.0%) 2432 (67.5%) 2381 (66.1%) 2248 (62.4%) 2144 (59.5%)
Expected 3601 2791 (77.5%) 2721 (75.6%) 2676 (74.3%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/18/05 214 0.240 0.226 0.185 0.123 0.001 0.043 0.096
12/25/05 249 0.286 0.263 0.245 0.207 0.009 0.143 0.058
01/01/06 351 0.175 0.168 0.149 0.102 0.000 0.075 0.024
01/08/06 319 0.169 0.151 0.133 0.165 0.006 0.019 0.068
01/15/06 320 0.181 0.128 0.119 0.071 0.012 0.035 0.049
01/22/06 322 0.167 0.101 0.100 0.058 0.026 0.044 0.015
01/29/06 321 0.087 0.057 0.040 0.044 0.000 0.017 0.008
02/05/06 313 0.167 0.163 0.132 0.124 0.024 0.022 0.070
02/12/06 320 0.169 0.161 0.138 0.163 0.041 0.067 0.024
02/19/06 317 0.123 0.076 0.067 0.067 0.000 0.027 0.015
02/26/06 294 0.076 0.052 0.053 0.053 0.008 0.009 0.026
03/05/06 158 0.099 0.105 0.079 0.092 0.011 0.002 0.069
Postseason 103 0.156 0.165 0.039 0.082 0.048 0.000 0.022
Total 3601 0.180 0.154 0.134 0.109 0.004 0.044 0.043
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.