Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/05 | 214 | 178 (83.2%) | 167 (78.0%) | 160 (74.8%) | 166 (77.6%) | 167 (78.0%) | 147 (68.7%) | 132 (61.7%) |
| 12/25/05 | 249 | 189 (75.9%) | 188 (75.5%) | 181 (72.7%) | 179 (71.9%) | 166 (66.7%) | 177 (71.1%) | 163 (65.5%) |
| 01/01/06 | 351 | 249 (70.9%) | 232 (66.1%) | 239 (68.1%) | 225 (64.1%) | 213 (60.7%) | 200 (57.0%) | 208 (59.3%) |
| 01/08/06 | 319 | 203 (63.6%) | 217 (68.0%) | 215 (67.4%) | 212 (66.5%) | 204 (63.9%) | 202 (63.3%) | 188 (58.9%) |
| 01/15/06 | 320 | 231 (72.2%) | 225 (70.3%) | 214 (66.9%) | 210 (65.6%) | 203 (63.4%) | 192 (60.0%) | 188 (58.8%) |
| 01/22/06 | 322 | 227 (70.5%) | 218 (67.7%) | 225 (69.9%) | 216 (67.1%) | 205 (63.7%) | 197 (61.2%) | 199 (61.8%) |
| 01/29/06 | 321 | 237 (73.8%) | 225 (70.1%) | 220 (68.5%) | 209 (65.1%) | 209 (65.1%) | 193 (60.1%) | 185 (57.6%) |
| 02/05/06 | 313 | 216 (69.0%) | 216 (69.0%) | 213 (68.1%) | 207 (66.1%) | 204 (65.2%) | 196 (62.6%) | 181 (57.8%) |
| 02/12/06 | 320 | 230 (71.9%) | 224 (70.0%) | 218 (68.1%) | 219 (68.4%) | 221 (69.1%) | 204 (63.8%) | 186 (58.1%) |
| 02/19/06 | 317 | 229 (72.2%) | 221 (69.7%) | 216 (68.1%) | 219 (69.1%) | 220 (69.4%) | 205 (64.7%) | 188 (59.3%) |
| 02/26/06 | 294 | 210 (71.4%) | 207 (70.4%) | 201 (68.4%) | 200 (68.0%) | 202 (68.7%) | 181 (61.6%) | 177 (60.2%) |
| 03/05/06 | 158 | 114 (72.2%) | 112 (70.9%) | 116 (73.4%) | 105 (66.5%) | 104 (65.8%) | 97 (61.4%) | 96 (60.8%) |
| Postseason | 103 | 74 (71.8%) | 71 (68.9%) | 66 (64.1%) | 65 (63.1%) | 63 (61.2%) | 57 (55.3%) | 53 (51.5%) |
| Total | 3601 | 2587 (71.8%) | 2523 (70.1%) | 2484 (69.0%) | 2432 (67.5%) | 2381 (66.1%) | 2248 (62.4%) | 2144 (59.5%) |
| Expected | 3601 | 2791 (77.5%) | 2721 (75.6%) | 2676 (74.3%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/05 | 214 | 0.240 | 0.226 | 0.185 | 0.123 | 0.001 | 0.043 | 0.096 |
| 12/25/05 | 249 | 0.286 | 0.263 | 0.245 | 0.207 | 0.009 | 0.143 | 0.058 |
| 01/01/06 | 351 | 0.175 | 0.168 | 0.149 | 0.102 | 0.000 | 0.075 | 0.024 |
| 01/08/06 | 319 | 0.169 | 0.151 | 0.133 | 0.165 | 0.006 | 0.019 | 0.068 |
| 01/15/06 | 320 | 0.181 | 0.128 | 0.119 | 0.071 | 0.012 | 0.035 | 0.049 |
| 01/22/06 | 322 | 0.167 | 0.101 | 0.100 | 0.058 | 0.026 | 0.044 | 0.015 |
| 01/29/06 | 321 | 0.087 | 0.057 | 0.040 | 0.044 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.008 |
| 02/05/06 | 313 | 0.167 | 0.163 | 0.132 | 0.124 | 0.024 | 0.022 | 0.070 |
| 02/12/06 | 320 | 0.169 | 0.161 | 0.138 | 0.163 | 0.041 | 0.067 | 0.024 |
| 02/19/06 | 317 | 0.123 | 0.076 | 0.067 | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.015 |
| 02/26/06 | 294 | 0.076 | 0.052 | 0.053 | 0.053 | 0.008 | 0.009 | 0.026 |
| 03/05/06 | 158 | 0.099 | 0.105 | 0.079 | 0.092 | 0.011 | 0.002 | 0.069 |
| Postseason | 103 | 0.156 | 0.165 | 0.039 | 0.082 | 0.048 | 0.000 | 0.022 |
| Total | 3601 | 0.180 | 0.154 | 0.134 | 0.109 | 0.004 | 0.044 | 0.043 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |