2004-2005 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/19/04 187 156 (83.4%) 148 (79.1%) 132 (70.6%) 138 (73.8%) 137 (73.3%) 128 (68.4%) 110 (58.8%)
12/26/04 297 225 (75.8%) 219 (73.7%) 220 (74.1%) 216 (72.7%) 206 (69.4%) 204 (68.7%) 195 (65.7%)
01/02/05 326 240 (73.6%) 223 (68.4%) 208 (63.8%) 223 (68.4%) 212 (65.0%) 200 (61.3%) 192 (58.9%)
01/09/05 311 205 (65.9%) 211 (67.8%) 202 (65.0%) 193 (62.1%) 187 (60.1%) 168 (54.0%) 183 (58.8%)
01/16/05 314 210 (66.9%) 209 (66.6%) 203 (64.6%) 202 (64.3%) 204 (65.0%) 182 (58.0%) 190 (60.5%)
01/23/05 311 221 (71.1%) 192 (61.7%) 195 (62.7%) 198 (63.7%) 190 (61.1%) 177 (56.9%) 178 (57.2%)
01/30/05 326 247 (75.8%) 240 (73.6%) 240 (73.6%) 226 (69.3%) 214 (65.6%) 198 (60.7%) 209 (64.1%)
02/06/05 320 227 (70.9%) 209 (65.3%) 211 (65.9%) 209 (65.3%) 211 (65.9%) 191 (59.7%) 187 (58.4%)
02/13/05 319 234 (73.4%) 211 (66.1%) 205 (64.3%) 205 (64.3%) 204 (63.9%) 198 (62.1%) 185 (58.0%)
02/20/05 318 231 (72.6%) 221 (69.5%) 221 (69.5%) 218 (68.6%) 211 (66.4%) 200 (62.9%) 192 (60.4%)
02/27/05 290 202 (69.7%) 212 (73.1%) 207 (71.4%) 204 (70.3%) 203 (70.0%) 184 (63.4%) 181 (62.4%)
03/06/05 159 115 (72.3%) 114 (71.7%) 118 (74.2%) 114 (71.7%) 110 (69.2%) 97 (61.0%) 93 (58.5%)
Postseason 103 74 (71.8%) 72 (69.9%) 65 (63.1%) 64 (62.1%) 62 (60.2%) 60 (58.3%) 55 (53.4%)
Total 3581 2587 (72.2%) 2481 (69.3%) 2427 (67.8%) 2410 (67.3%) 2351 (65.7%) 2187 (61.1%) 2150 (60.0%)
Expected 3581 2795 (78.0%) 2727 (76.1%) 2678 (74.8%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/19/04 187 0.288 0.261 0.165 0.209 0.003 0.096 0.036
12/26/04 297 0.280 0.249 0.199 0.154 0.004 0.079 0.097
01/02/05 326 0.137 0.092 0.079 0.069 0.001 0.028 0.027
01/09/05 311 0.171 0.162 0.113 0.086 0.007 0.061 0.021
01/16/05 314 0.138 0.121 0.090 0.057 0.002 0.020 0.044
01/23/05 311 0.193 0.188 0.122 0.111 0.024 0.031 0.056
01/30/05 326 0.196 0.183 0.131 0.120 0.004 0.068 0.023
02/06/05 320 0.114 0.063 0.039 0.051 0.002 0.006 0.024
02/13/05 319 0.158 0.122 0.070 0.107 0.008 0.055 0.005
02/20/05 318 0.198 0.144 0.137 0.108 0.053 0.032 0.065
02/27/05 290 0.204 0.156 0.139 0.157 0.038 0.027 0.068
03/06/05 159 0.138 0.124 0.105 0.129 0.002 0.019 0.059
Postseason 103 0.112 0.105 0.046 0.140 0.025 0.041 0.006
Total 3581 0.205 0.174 0.129 0.117 0.004 0.049 0.043
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.