Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/19/04 | 187 | 156 (83.4%) | 148 (79.1%) | 132 (70.6%) | 138 (73.8%) | 137 (73.3%) | 128 (68.4%) | 110 (58.8%) |
| 12/26/04 | 297 | 225 (75.8%) | 219 (73.7%) | 220 (74.1%) | 216 (72.7%) | 206 (69.4%) | 204 (68.7%) | 195 (65.7%) |
| 01/02/05 | 326 | 240 (73.6%) | 223 (68.4%) | 208 (63.8%) | 223 (68.4%) | 212 (65.0%) | 200 (61.3%) | 192 (58.9%) |
| 01/09/05 | 311 | 205 (65.9%) | 211 (67.8%) | 202 (65.0%) | 193 (62.1%) | 187 (60.1%) | 168 (54.0%) | 183 (58.8%) |
| 01/16/05 | 314 | 210 (66.9%) | 209 (66.6%) | 203 (64.6%) | 202 (64.3%) | 204 (65.0%) | 182 (58.0%) | 190 (60.5%) |
| 01/23/05 | 311 | 221 (71.1%) | 192 (61.7%) | 195 (62.7%) | 198 (63.7%) | 190 (61.1%) | 177 (56.9%) | 178 (57.2%) |
| 01/30/05 | 326 | 247 (75.8%) | 240 (73.6%) | 240 (73.6%) | 226 (69.3%) | 214 (65.6%) | 198 (60.7%) | 209 (64.1%) |
| 02/06/05 | 320 | 227 (70.9%) | 209 (65.3%) | 211 (65.9%) | 209 (65.3%) | 211 (65.9%) | 191 (59.7%) | 187 (58.4%) |
| 02/13/05 | 319 | 234 (73.4%) | 211 (66.1%) | 205 (64.3%) | 205 (64.3%) | 204 (63.9%) | 198 (62.1%) | 185 (58.0%) |
| 02/20/05 | 318 | 231 (72.6%) | 221 (69.5%) | 221 (69.5%) | 218 (68.6%) | 211 (66.4%) | 200 (62.9%) | 192 (60.4%) |
| 02/27/05 | 290 | 202 (69.7%) | 212 (73.1%) | 207 (71.4%) | 204 (70.3%) | 203 (70.0%) | 184 (63.4%) | 181 (62.4%) |
| 03/06/05 | 159 | 115 (72.3%) | 114 (71.7%) | 118 (74.2%) | 114 (71.7%) | 110 (69.2%) | 97 (61.0%) | 93 (58.5%) |
| Postseason | 103 | 74 (71.8%) | 72 (69.9%) | 65 (63.1%) | 64 (62.1%) | 62 (60.2%) | 60 (58.3%) | 55 (53.4%) |
| Total | 3581 | 2587 (72.2%) | 2481 (69.3%) | 2427 (67.8%) | 2410 (67.3%) | 2351 (65.7%) | 2187 (61.1%) | 2150 (60.0%) |
| Expected | 3581 | 2795 (78.0%) | 2727 (76.1%) | 2678 (74.8%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/19/04 | 187 | 0.288 | 0.261 | 0.165 | 0.209 | 0.003 | 0.096 | 0.036 |
| 12/26/04 | 297 | 0.280 | 0.249 | 0.199 | 0.154 | 0.004 | 0.079 | 0.097 |
| 01/02/05 | 326 | 0.137 | 0.092 | 0.079 | 0.069 | 0.001 | 0.028 | 0.027 |
| 01/09/05 | 311 | 0.171 | 0.162 | 0.113 | 0.086 | 0.007 | 0.061 | 0.021 |
| 01/16/05 | 314 | 0.138 | 0.121 | 0.090 | 0.057 | 0.002 | 0.020 | 0.044 |
| 01/23/05 | 311 | 0.193 | 0.188 | 0.122 | 0.111 | 0.024 | 0.031 | 0.056 |
| 01/30/05 | 326 | 0.196 | 0.183 | 0.131 | 0.120 | 0.004 | 0.068 | 0.023 |
| 02/06/05 | 320 | 0.114 | 0.063 | 0.039 | 0.051 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.024 |
| 02/13/05 | 319 | 0.158 | 0.122 | 0.070 | 0.107 | 0.008 | 0.055 | 0.005 |
| 02/20/05 | 318 | 0.198 | 0.144 | 0.137 | 0.108 | 0.053 | 0.032 | 0.065 |
| 02/27/05 | 290 | 0.204 | 0.156 | 0.139 | 0.157 | 0.038 | 0.027 | 0.068 |
| 03/06/05 | 159 | 0.138 | 0.124 | 0.105 | 0.129 | 0.002 | 0.019 | 0.059 |
| Postseason | 103 | 0.112 | 0.105 | 0.046 | 0.140 | 0.025 | 0.041 | 0.006 |
| Total | 3581 | 0.205 | 0.174 | 0.129 | 0.117 | 0.004 | 0.049 | 0.043 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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