Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/21/03 | 175 | 146 (83.4%) | 142 (81.1%) | 137 (78.3%) | 126 (72.0%) | 122 (69.7%) | 114 (65.1%) | 121 (69.1%) |
| 12/28/03 | 302 | 238 (78.8%) | 229 (75.8%) | 222 (73.5%) | 216 (71.5%) | 202 (66.9%) | 195 (64.6%) | 206 (68.2%) |
| 01/04/04 | 325 | 235 (72.3%) | 221 (68.0%) | 217 (66.8%) | 218 (67.1%) | 207 (63.7%) | 197 (60.6%) | 186 (57.2%) |
| 01/11/04 | 304 | 196 (64.5%) | 196 (64.5%) | 190 (62.5%) | 194 (63.8%) | 187 (61.5%) | 174 (57.2%) | 166 (54.6%) |
| 01/18/04 | 318 | 228 (71.7%) | 225 (70.8%) | 220 (69.2%) | 228 (71.7%) | 215 (67.6%) | 188 (59.1%) | 185 (58.2%) |
| 01/25/04 | 311 | 210 (67.5%) | 199 (64.0%) | 203 (65.3%) | 205 (65.9%) | 198 (63.7%) | 175 (56.3%) | 179 (57.6%) |
| 02/01/04 | 306 | 232 (75.8%) | 222 (72.5%) | 207 (67.6%) | 213 (69.6%) | 214 (69.9%) | 178 (58.2%) | 179 (58.5%) |
| 02/08/04 | 310 | 222 (71.6%) | 199 (64.2%) | 196 (63.2%) | 194 (62.6%) | 198 (63.9%) | 181 (58.4%) | 184 (59.4%) |
| 02/15/04 | 307 | 214 (69.7%) | 207 (67.4%) | 213 (69.4%) | 208 (67.8%) | 201 (65.5%) | 175 (57.0%) | 175 (57.0%) |
| 02/22/04 | 315 | 235 (74.6%) | 219 (69.5%) | 215 (68.3%) | 221 (70.2%) | 224 (71.1%) | 205 (65.1%) | 180 (57.1%) |
| 02/29/04 | 280 | 198 (70.7%) | 189 (67.5%) | 179 (63.9%) | 190 (67.9%) | 190 (67.9%) | 164 (58.6%) | 158 (56.4%) |
| 03/07/04 | 156 | 116 (74.4%) | 118 (75.6%) | 114 (73.1%) | 117 (75.0%) | 114 (73.1%) | 88 (56.4%) | 98 (62.8%) |
| Postseason | 103 | 74 (71.8%) | 65 (63.1%) | 55 (53.4%) | 62 (60.2%) | 67 (65.0%) | 62 (60.2%) | 50 (48.5%) |
| Total | 3512 | 2544 (72.4%) | 2431 (69.2%) | 2368 (67.4%) | 2392 (68.1%) | 2339 (66.6%) | 2096 (59.7%) | 2067 (58.9%) |
| Expected | 3512 | 2733 (77.8%) | 2672 (76.1%) | 2622 (74.7%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/21/03 | 175 | 0.306 | 0.265 | 0.160 | 0.234 | 0.043 | 0.079 | 0.039 |
| 12/28/03 | 302 | 0.196 | 0.165 | 0.119 | 0.116 | 0.051 | 0.069 | 0.018 |
| 01/04/04 | 325 | 0.284 | 0.212 | 0.162 | 0.131 | 0.001 | 0.073 | 0.037 |
| 01/11/04 | 304 | 0.225 | 0.152 | 0.139 | 0.122 | 0.007 | 0.061 | 0.023 |
| 01/18/04 | 318 | 0.172 | 0.141 | 0.110 | 0.090 | 0.036 | 0.035 | 0.028 |
| 01/25/04 | 311 | 0.193 | 0.120 | 0.096 | 0.108 | 0.004 | 0.050 | 0.016 |
| 02/01/04 | 306 | 0.151 | 0.099 | 0.088 | 0.077 | 0.015 | 0.056 | 0.010 |
| 02/08/04 | 310 | 0.124 | 0.109 | 0.085 | 0.075 | 0.006 | 0.035 | 0.022 |
| 02/15/04 | 307 | 0.098 | 0.107 | 0.116 | 0.105 | 0.008 | 0.034 | 0.041 |
| 02/22/04 | 315 | 0.205 | 0.157 | 0.140 | 0.160 | 0.020 | 0.041 | 0.047 |
| 02/29/04 | 280 | 0.137 | 0.085 | 0.074 | 0.096 | 0.006 | 0.019 | 0.028 |
| 03/07/04 | 156 | 0.129 | 0.115 | 0.093 | 0.125 | 0.002 | 0.042 | 0.014 |
| Postseason | 103 | 0.191 | 0.183 | 0.106 | 0.223 | 0.107 | 0.060 | 0.000 |
| Total | 3512 | 0.198 | 0.157 | 0.125 | 0.123 | 0.016 | 0.054 | 0.029 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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