2019-2020 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/15/19 295 220 (74.6%) 228 (77.3%) 212 (71.9%) 219 (74.2%) 211 (71.5%) 201 (68.1%) 177 (60.0%)
12/22/19 111 87 (78.4%) 88 (79.3%) 86 (77.5%) 84 (75.7%) 80 (72.1%) 78 (70.3%) 77 (69.4%)
12/29/19 314 221 (70.4%) 206 (65.6%) 205 (65.3%) 192 (61.1%) 184 (58.6%) 180 (57.3%) 194 (61.8%)
01/05/20 326 233 (71.5%) 223 (68.4%) 216 (66.3%) 203 (62.3%) 195 (59.8%) 193 (59.2%) 193 (59.2%)
01/12/20 325 231 (71.1%) 222 (68.3%) 217 (66.8%) 208 (64.0%) 211 (64.9%) 189 (58.2%) 194 (59.7%)
01/19/20 330 227 (68.8%) 225 (68.2%) 216 (65.5%) 220 (66.7%) 211 (63.9%) 190 (57.6%) 187 (56.7%)
01/26/20 331 235 (71.0%) 234 (70.7%) 227 (68.6%) 230 (69.5%) 219 (66.2%) 201 (60.7%) 206 (62.2%)
02/02/20 321 216 (67.3%) 210 (65.4%) 213 (66.4%) 205 (63.9%) 199 (62.0%) 190 (59.2%) 188 (58.6%)
02/09/20 334 249 (74.6%) 231 (69.2%) 228 (68.3%) 226 (67.7%) 220 (65.9%) 202 (60.5%) 190 (56.9%)
02/16/20 325 220 (67.7%) 207 (63.7%) 207 (63.7%) 210 (64.6%) 204 (62.8%) 184 (56.6%) 191 (58.8%)
02/23/20 323 230 (71.2%) 225 (69.7%) 226 (70.0%) 219 (67.8%) 213 (65.9%) 186 (57.6%) 204 (63.2%)
03/01/20 297 204 (68.7%) 198 (66.7%) 198 (66.7%) 190 (64.0%) 202 (68.0%) 179 (60.3%) 178 (59.9%)
Total 3632 2573 (70.8%) 2497 (68.8%) 2451 (67.5%) 2406 (66.2%) 2349 (64.7%) 2173 (59.8%) 2179 (60.0%)
Expected 3632 2767 (76.2%) 2710 (74.6%) 2687 (74.0%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/15/19 295 0.207 0.189 0.141 0.109 0.040 0.040 0.080
12/22/19 111 0.417 0.422 0.330 0.304 0.016 0.124 0.198
12/29/19 314 0.152 0.142 0.118 0.082 0.011 0.056 0.031
01/05/20 326 0.109 0.077 0.046 0.055 0.026 0.001 0.043
01/12/20 325 0.079 0.053 0.040 0.018 0.001 0.006 0.021
01/19/20 330 0.122 0.085 0.075 0.066 0.003 0.021 0.025
01/26/20 331 0.172 0.155 0.133 0.135 0.017 0.026 0.055
02/02/20 321 0.072 0.052 0.049 0.035 0.002 0.008 0.022
02/09/20 334 0.096 0.070 0.071 0.057 0.012 0.038 0.012
02/16/20 325 0.109 0.093 0.089 0.067 0.011 0.021 0.040
02/23/20 323 0.174 0.143 0.134 0.125 0.011 0.031 0.052
03/01/20 297 0.127 0.091 0.080 0.071 0.017 0.034 0.011
Total 3632 0.155 0.132 0.107 0.088 0.012 0.031 0.042
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.