Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/16/18 | 290 | 232 (80.0%) | 230 (79.3%) | 217 (74.8%) | 217 (74.8%) | 218 (75.2%) | 186 (64.1%) | 197 (67.9%) |
| 12/23/18 | 145 | 115 (79.3%) | 114 (78.6%) | 111 (76.6%) | 107 (73.8%) | 109 (75.2%) | 98 (67.6%) | 96 (66.2%) |
| 12/30/18 | 292 | 204 (69.9%) | 203 (69.5%) | 192 (65.8%) | 195 (66.8%) | 179 (61.3%) | 178 (61.0%) | 166 (56.8%) |
| 01/06/19 | 321 | 223 (69.5%) | 211 (65.7%) | 195 (60.7%) | 203 (63.2%) | 201 (62.6%) | 190 (59.2%) | 189 (58.9%) |
| 01/13/19 | 314 | 222 (70.7%) | 209 (66.6%) | 201 (64.0%) | 218 (69.4%) | 207 (65.9%) | 184 (58.6%) | 185 (58.9%) |
| 01/20/19 | 342 | 245 (71.6%) | 235 (68.7%) | 238 (69.6%) | 227 (66.4%) | 213 (62.3%) | 211 (61.7%) | 210 (61.4%) |
| 01/27/19 | 315 | 218 (69.2%) | 215 (68.3%) | 201 (63.8%) | 194 (61.6%) | 206 (65.4%) | 168 (53.3%) | 189 (60.0%) |
| 02/03/19 | 330 | 226 (68.5%) | 227 (68.8%) | 227 (68.8%) | 218 (66.1%) | 224 (67.9%) | 203 (61.5%) | 186 (56.4%) |
| 02/10/19 | 324 | 229 (70.7%) | 218 (67.3%) | 214 (66.0%) | 216 (66.7%) | 219 (67.6%) | 203 (62.7%) | 190 (58.6%) |
| 02/17/19 | 315 | 221 (70.2%) | 211 (67.0%) | 214 (67.9%) | 205 (65.1%) | 201 (63.8%) | 193 (61.3%) | 182 (57.8%) |
| 02/24/19 | 323 | 225 (69.7%) | 220 (68.1%) | 213 (65.9%) | 217 (67.2%) | 214 (66.3%) | 204 (63.2%) | 189 (58.5%) |
| 03/03/19 | 300 | 202 (67.3%) | 196 (65.3%) | 197 (65.7%) | 204 (68.0%) | 205 (68.3%) | 176 (58.7%) | 182 (60.7%) |
| 03/10/19 | 204 | 150 (73.5%) | 151 (74.0%) | 154 (75.5%) | 144 (70.6%) | 140 (68.6%) | 120 (58.8%) | 135 (66.2%) |
| Postseason | 140 | 102 (72.9%) | 100 (71.4%) | 83 (59.3%) | 93 (66.4%) | 96 (68.6%) | 81 (57.9%) | 77 (55.0%) |
| Total | 3955 | 2814 (71.2%) | 2740 (69.3%) | 2657 (67.2%) | 2658 (67.2%) | 2632 (66.5%) | 2395 (60.6%) | 2373 (60.0%) |
| Expected | 3955 | 3008 (76.1%) | 2956 (74.7%) | 2907 (73.5%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/16/18 | 290 | 0.282 | 0.279 | 0.230 | 0.200 | 0.003 | 0.089 | 0.102 |
| 12/23/18 | 145 | 0.295 | 0.292 | 0.267 | 0.238 | 0.021 | 0.124 | 0.110 |
| 12/30/18 | 292 | 0.116 | 0.102 | 0.056 | 0.053 | 0.022 | 0.025 | 0.011 |
| 01/06/19 | 321 | 0.122 | 0.100 | 0.078 | 0.057 | 0.026 | 0.041 | 0.014 |
| 01/13/19 | 314 | 0.159 | 0.119 | 0.103 | 0.083 | 0.009 | 0.054 | 0.021 |
| 01/20/19 | 342 | 0.154 | 0.128 | 0.106 | 0.086 | 0.017 | 0.069 | 0.014 |
| 01/27/19 | 315 | 0.149 | 0.119 | 0.099 | 0.086 | 0.038 | 0.059 | 0.009 |
| 02/03/19 | 330 | 0.165 | 0.136 | 0.131 | 0.091 | 0.025 | 0.046 | 0.039 |
| 02/10/19 | 324 | 0.175 | 0.156 | 0.149 | 0.139 | 0.013 | 0.035 | 0.068 |
| 02/17/19 | 315 | 0.181 | 0.141 | 0.118 | 0.120 | 0.017 | 0.056 | 0.026 |
| 02/24/19 | 323 | 0.132 | 0.110 | 0.097 | 0.116 | 0.046 | 0.060 | 0.020 |
| 03/03/19 | 300 | 0.138 | 0.109 | 0.111 | 0.096 | 0.004 | 0.036 | 0.032 |
| 03/10/19 | 204 | 0.124 | 0.117 | 0.101 | 0.103 | 0.021 | 0.034 | 0.024 |
| Postseason | 140 | 0.091 | 0.101 | 0.058 | 0.068 | 0.042 | 0.009 | 0.020 |
| Total | 3955 | 0.177 | 0.155 | 0.131 | 0.114 | 0.014 | 0.056 | 0.036 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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