2016-2017 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/18/16 241 190 (78.8%) 191 (79.3%) 186 (77.2%) 182 (75.5%) 186 (77.2%) 167 (69.3%) 158 (65.6%)
12/25/16 247 170 (68.8%) 172 (69.6%) 168 (68.0%) 156 (63.2%) 150 (60.7%) 143 (57.9%) 156 (63.2%)
01/01/17 351 256 (72.9%) 261 (74.4%) 239 (68.1%) 239 (68.1%) 238 (67.8%) 220 (62.7%) 200 (57.0%)
01/08/17 327 211 (64.5%) 211 (64.5%) 215 (65.7%) 205 (62.7%) 208 (63.6%) 189 (57.8%) 195 (59.6%)
01/15/17 330 246 (74.5%) 228 (69.1%) 224 (67.9%) 218 (66.1%) 221 (67.0%) 191 (57.9%) 207 (62.7%)
01/22/17 334 226 (67.7%) 223 (66.8%) 221 (66.2%) 216 (64.7%) 203 (60.8%) 197 (59.0%) 203 (60.8%)
01/29/17 333 237 (71.2%) 243 (73.0%) 236 (70.9%) 234 (70.3%) 223 (67.0%) 208 (62.5%) 208 (62.5%)
02/05/17 339 244 (72.0%) 234 (69.0%) 226 (66.7%) 235 (69.3%) 232 (68.4%) 186 (54.9%) 224 (66.1%)
02/12/17 331 254 (76.7%) 240 (72.5%) 236 (71.3%) 232 (70.1%) 233 (70.4%) 199 (60.1%) 215 (65.0%)
02/19/17 333 228 (68.5%) 230 (69.1%) 223 (67.0%) 232 (69.7%) 228 (68.5%) 198 (59.5%) 199 (59.8%)
02/26/17 309 227 (73.5%) 214 (69.3%) 213 (68.9%) 201 (65.0%) 208 (67.3%) 188 (60.8%) 187 (60.5%)
03/05/17 203 148 (72.9%) 149 (73.4%) 149 (73.4%) 146 (71.9%) 142 (70.0%) 119 (58.6%) 131 (64.5%)
Total 3678 2637 (71.7%) 2596 (70.6%) 2536 (69.0%) 2496 (67.9%) 2472 (67.2%) 2205 (60.0%) 2283 (62.1%)
Expected 3678 2809 (76.4%) 2774 (75.4%) 2742 (74.5%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/18/16 241 0.292 0.269 0.234 0.230 0.011 0.141 0.076
12/25/16 247 0.247 0.205 0.150 0.133 0.013 0.047 0.042
01/01/17 351 0.125 0.103 0.074 0.050 0.000 0.018 0.015
01/08/17 327 0.115 0.079 0.057 0.059 0.003 0.022 0.010
01/15/17 330 0.170 0.153 0.117 0.146 0.032 0.026 0.037
01/22/17 334 0.153 0.152 0.125 0.090 0.049 0.015 0.072
01/29/17 333 0.151 0.118 0.087 0.130 0.021 0.053 0.006
02/05/17 339 0.110 0.095 0.095 0.087 0.012 0.020 0.031
02/12/17 331 0.167 0.128 0.136 0.099 0.030 0.052 0.025
02/19/17 333 0.177 0.171 0.139 0.144 0.064 0.026 0.048
02/26/17 309 0.203 0.192 0.194 0.177 0.057 0.029 0.085
03/05/17 203 0.091 0.089 0.087 0.093 0.028 0.003 0.054
Total 3678 0.179 0.158 0.133 0.122 0.016 0.038 0.039
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.