2017-2018 Predictive Performance


Game winner prediction


# winners correctly predicted
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/17/17 282 228 (80.9%) 226 (80.1%) 217 (77.0%) 221 (78.4%) 217 (77.0%) 197 (69.9%) 185 (65.6%)
12/24/17 238 180 (75.6%) 170 (71.4%) 171 (71.8%) 157 (66.0%) 160 (67.2%) 155 (65.1%) 142 (59.7%)
12/31/17 337 231 (68.5%) 218 (64.7%) 231 (68.5%) 218 (64.7%) 203 (60.2%) 205 (60.8%) 188 (55.8%)
01/07/18 334 230 (68.9%) 215 (64.4%) 214 (64.1%) 209 (62.6%) 211 (63.2%) 217 (65.0%) 177 (53.0%)
01/14/18 345 245 (71.0%) 235 (68.1%) 233 (67.5%) 223 (64.6%) 212 (61.4%) 211 (61.2%) 201 (58.3%)
01/21/18 318 228 (71.7%) 219 (68.9%) 214 (67.3%) 221 (69.5%) 223 (70.1%) 199 (62.6%) 184 (57.9%)
01/28/18 335 237 (70.7%) 235 (70.1%) 233 (69.6%) 242 (72.2%) 234 (69.9%) 210 (62.7%) 195 (58.2%)
02/04/18 333 233 (70.0%) 234 (70.3%) 232 (69.7%) 225 (67.6%) 208 (62.5%) 209 (62.8%) 191 (57.4%)
02/11/18 334 235 (70.4%) 227 (68.0%) 220 (65.9%) 225 (67.4%) 217 (65.0%) 208 (62.3%) 188 (56.3%)
Total 2856 2047 (71.7%) 1979 (69.3%) 1965 (68.8%) 1941 (68.0%) 1885 (66.0%) 1811 (63.4%) 1651 (57.8%)
Expected 2856 2220 (77.7%) 2178 (76.3%) 2143 (75.0%) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Score margin prediction


Squared correlation coefficient
Rankings date # games AASM+HCA AASM ASM Colley LRMC0 APS APA
12/17/17 282 0.259 0.258 0.211 0.208 0.027 0.121 0.061
12/24/17 238 0.321 0.292 0.255 0.213 0.012 0.113 0.066
12/31/17 337 0.135 0.100 0.067 0.095 0.019 0.021 0.023
01/07/18 334 0.136 0.140 0.076 0.088 0.018 0.040 0.014
01/14/18 345 0.097 0.081 0.069 0.050 0.052 0.042 0.007
01/21/18 318 0.182 0.134 0.134 0.126 0.018 0.020 0.074
01/28/18 335 0.114 0.106 0.102 0.079 0.008 0.034 0.036
02/04/18 333 0.090 0.069 0.082 0.052 0.015 0.033 0.023
02/11/18 334 0.128 0.086 0.099 0.080 0.016 0.022 0.045
Total 2856 0.182 0.161 0.136 0.117 0.018 0.055 0.041
Combined
plot
x:act.
y:pred.