Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/16 | 241 | 190 (78.8%) | 191 (79.3%) | 186 (77.2%) | 182 (75.5%) | 186 (77.2%) | 167 (69.3%) | 158 (65.6%) |
| 12/25/16 | 247 | 170 (68.8%) | 172 (69.6%) | 168 (68.0%) | 156 (63.2%) | 150 (60.7%) | 143 (57.9%) | 156 (63.2%) |
| 01/01/17 | 351 | 256 (72.9%) | 261 (74.4%) | 239 (68.1%) | 239 (68.1%) | 238 (67.8%) | 220 (62.7%) | 200 (57.0%) |
| 01/08/17 | 327 | 211 (64.5%) | 211 (64.5%) | 215 (65.7%) | 205 (62.7%) | 208 (63.6%) | 189 (57.8%) | 195 (59.6%) |
| 01/15/17 | 330 | 246 (74.5%) | 228 (69.1%) | 224 (67.9%) | 218 (66.1%) | 221 (67.0%) | 191 (57.9%) | 207 (62.7%) |
| 01/22/17 | 334 | 226 (67.7%) | 223 (66.8%) | 221 (66.2%) | 216 (64.7%) | 203 (60.8%) | 197 (59.0%) | 203 (60.8%) |
| 01/29/17 | 333 | 237 (71.2%) | 243 (73.0%) | 236 (70.9%) | 234 (70.3%) | 223 (67.0%) | 208 (62.5%) | 208 (62.5%) |
| 02/05/17 | 339 | 244 (72.0%) | 234 (69.0%) | 226 (66.7%) | 235 (69.3%) | 232 (68.4%) | 186 (54.9%) | 224 (66.1%) |
| 02/12/17 | 331 | 254 (76.7%) | 240 (72.5%) | 236 (71.3%) | 232 (70.1%) | 233 (70.4%) | 199 (60.1%) | 215 (65.0%) |
| 02/19/17 | 333 | 228 (68.5%) | 230 (69.1%) | 223 (67.0%) | 232 (69.7%) | 228 (68.5%) | 198 (59.5%) | 199 (59.8%) |
| 02/26/17 | 309 | 227 (73.5%) | 214 (69.3%) | 213 (68.9%) | 201 (65.0%) | 208 (67.3%) | 188 (60.8%) | 187 (60.5%) |
| 03/05/17 | 203 | 148 (72.9%) | 149 (73.4%) | 149 (73.4%) | 146 (71.9%) | 142 (70.0%) | 119 (58.6%) | 131 (64.5%) |
| Postseason | 140 | 91 (65.0%) | 90 (64.3%) | 79 (56.4%) | 88 (62.9%) | 86 (61.4%) | 68 (48.6%) | 79 (56.4%) |
| Total | 3818 | 2728 (71.5%) | 2686 (70.4%) | 2615 (68.5%) | 2584 (67.7%) | 2558 (67.0%) | 2273 (59.5%) | 2362 (61.9%) |
| Expected | 3818 | 2912 (76.3%) | 2876 (75.3%) | 2834 (74.2%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/16 | 241 | 0.292 | 0.269 | 0.234 | 0.230 | 0.011 | 0.141 | 0.076 |
| 12/25/16 | 247 | 0.247 | 0.205 | 0.150 | 0.133 | 0.013 | 0.047 | 0.042 |
| 01/01/17 | 351 | 0.125 | 0.103 | 0.074 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.015 |
| 01/08/17 | 327 | 0.115 | 0.079 | 0.057 | 0.059 | 0.003 | 0.022 | 0.010 |
| 01/15/17 | 330 | 0.170 | 0.153 | 0.117 | 0.146 | 0.032 | 0.026 | 0.037 |
| 01/22/17 | 334 | 0.153 | 0.152 | 0.125 | 0.090 | 0.049 | 0.015 | 0.072 |
| 01/29/17 | 333 | 0.151 | 0.118 | 0.087 | 0.130 | 0.021 | 0.053 | 0.006 |
| 02/05/17 | 339 | 0.110 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.087 | 0.012 | 0.020 | 0.031 |
| 02/12/17 | 331 | 0.167 | 0.128 | 0.136 | 0.099 | 0.030 | 0.052 | 0.025 |
| 02/19/17 | 333 | 0.177 | 0.171 | 0.139 | 0.144 | 0.064 | 0.026 | 0.048 |
| 02/26/17 | 309 | 0.203 | 0.192 | 0.194 | 0.177 | 0.057 | 0.029 | 0.085 |
| 03/05/17 | 203 | 0.091 | 0.089 | 0.087 | 0.093 | 0.028 | 0.003 | 0.054 |
| Postseason | 140 | 0.114 | 0.097 | 0.038 | 0.107 | 0.036 | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| Total | 3818 | 0.176 | 0.155 | 0.129 | 0.121 | 0.016 | 0.037 | 0.037 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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