Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/15/13 | 275 | 206 (74.9%) | 201 (73.1%) | 194 (70.5%) | 202 (73.5%) | 185 (67.3%) | 166 (60.4%) | 178 (64.7%) |
| 12/22/13 | 132 | 102 (77.3%) | 102 (77.3%) | 98 (74.2%) | 97 (73.5%) | 99 (75.0%) | 86 (65.2%) | 86 (65.2%) |
| 12/29/13 | 306 | 219 (71.6%) | 208 (68.0%) | 214 (69.9%) | 207 (67.6%) | 202 (66.0%) | 183 (59.8%) | 198 (64.7%) |
| 01/05/14 | 324 | 212 (65.4%) | 214 (66.0%) | 214 (66.0%) | 210 (64.8%) | 206 (63.6%) | 183 (56.5%) | 180 (55.6%) |
| 01/12/14 | 327 | 226 (69.1%) | 222 (67.9%) | 221 (67.6%) | 236 (72.2%) | 215 (65.7%) | 176 (53.8%) | 206 (63.0%) |
| 01/19/14 | 334 | 237 (71.0%) | 226 (67.7%) | 223 (66.8%) | 225 (67.4%) | 218 (65.3%) | 207 (62.0%) | 191 (57.2%) |
| 01/26/14 | 320 | 213 (66.6%) | 199 (62.2%) | 198 (61.9%) | 205 (64.1%) | 201 (62.8%) | 191 (59.7%) | 176 (55.0%) |
| 02/02/14 | 328 | 238 (72.6%) | 232 (70.7%) | 229 (69.8%) | 239 (72.9%) | 230 (70.1%) | 199 (60.7%) | 197 (60.1%) |
| 02/09/14 | 322 | 227 (70.5%) | 223 (69.3%) | 223 (69.3%) | 213 (66.1%) | 214 (66.5%) | 200 (62.1%) | 190 (59.0%) |
| 02/16/14 | 323 | 245 (75.9%) | 230 (71.2%) | 224 (69.3%) | 236 (73.1%) | 224 (69.3%) | 208 (64.4%) | 195 (60.4%) |
| 02/23/14 | 334 | 241 (72.2%) | 226 (67.7%) | 227 (68.0%) | 222 (66.5%) | 217 (65.0%) | 211 (63.2%) | 199 (59.6%) |
| 03/02/14 | 299 | 218 (72.9%) | 211 (70.6%) | 209 (69.9%) | 216 (72.2%) | 212 (70.9%) | 196 (65.6%) | 174 (58.2%) |
| 03/09/14 | 192 | 136 (70.8%) | 136 (70.8%) | 135 (70.3%) | 134 (69.8%) | 132 (68.8%) | 117 (60.9%) | 112 (58.3%) |
| Postseason | 146 | 101 (69.2%) | 90 (61.6%) | 80 (54.8%) | 92 (63.0%) | 93 (63.7%) | 70 (47.9%) | 78 (53.4%) |
| Total | 3962 | 2821 (71.2%) | 2720 (68.7%) | 2689 (67.9%) | 2734 (69.0%) | 2648 (66.8%) | 2393 (60.4%) | 2360 (59.6%) |
| Expected | 3962 | 3072 (77.5%) | 3035 (76.6%) | 2965 (74.8%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/15/13 | 275 | 0.216 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.153 | 0.008 | 0.081 | 0.083 |
| 12/22/13 | 132 | 0.415 | 0.408 | 0.410 | 0.323 | 0.069 | 0.092 | 0.256 |
| 12/29/13 | 306 | 0.235 | 0.215 | 0.176 | 0.175 | 0.006 | 0.105 | 0.021 |
| 01/05/14 | 324 | 0.122 | 0.103 | 0.074 | 0.078 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.027 |
| 01/12/14 | 327 | 0.185 | 0.154 | 0.115 | 0.113 | 0.005 | 0.037 | 0.028 |
| 01/19/14 | 334 | 0.149 | 0.134 | 0.115 | 0.076 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.040 |
| 01/26/14 | 320 | 0.094 | 0.071 | 0.043 | 0.052 | 0.000 | 0.040 | 0.001 |
| 02/02/14 | 328 | 0.106 | 0.087 | 0.071 | 0.060 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.049 |
| 02/09/14 | 322 | 0.153 | 0.134 | 0.105 | 0.081 | 0.000 | 0.033 | 0.033 |
| 02/16/14 | 323 | 0.094 | 0.085 | 0.073 | 0.061 | 0.018 | 0.022 | 0.018 |
| 02/23/14 | 334 | 0.151 | 0.115 | 0.106 | 0.071 | 0.020 | 0.056 | 0.019 |
| 03/02/14 | 299 | 0.184 | 0.146 | 0.137 | 0.127 | 0.022 | 0.021 | 0.066 |
| 03/09/14 | 192 | 0.135 | 0.147 | 0.150 | 0.107 | 0.068 | 0.022 | 0.070 |
| Postseason | 146 | 0.119 | 0.104 | 0.040 | 0.113 | 0.121 | 0.011 | 0.002 |
| Total | 3962 | 0.172 | 0.152 | 0.131 | 0.109 | 0.007 | 0.040 | 0.042 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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