Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/11 | 265 | 210 (79.2%) | 207 (78.1%) | 195 (73.6%) | 197 (74.3%) | 187 (70.6%) | 188 (70.9%) | 166 (62.6%) |
| 12/25/11 | 256 | 198 (77.3%) | 191 (74.6%) | 195 (76.2%) | 184 (71.9%) | 176 (68.8%) | 164 (64.1%) | 170 (66.4%) |
| 01/01/12 | 354 | 251 (70.9%) | 238 (67.2%) | 240 (67.8%) | 247 (69.8%) | 245 (69.2%) | 229 (64.7%) | 205 (57.9%) |
| 01/08/12 | 329 | 237 (72.0%) | 242 (73.6%) | 229 (69.6%) | 230 (69.9%) | 225 (68.4%) | 218 (66.3%) | 191 (58.1%) |
| 01/15/12 | 325 | 229 (70.5%) | 226 (69.5%) | 215 (66.2%) | 217 (66.8%) | 219 (67.4%) | 213 (65.5%) | 181 (55.7%) |
| 01/22/12 | 330 | 251 (76.1%) | 239 (72.4%) | 238 (72.1%) | 233 (70.6%) | 227 (68.8%) | 220 (66.7%) | 195 (59.1%) |
| 01/29/12 | 325 | 245 (75.4%) | 233 (71.7%) | 234 (72.0%) | 239 (73.5%) | 234 (72.0%) | 228 (70.2%) | 198 (60.9%) |
| 02/05/12 | 331 | 240 (72.5%) | 236 (71.3%) | 215 (65.0%) | 225 (68.0%) | 227 (68.6%) | 197 (59.5%) | 206 (62.2%) |
| 02/12/12 | 322 | 241 (74.8%) | 230 (71.4%) | 237 (73.6%) | 228 (70.8%) | 225 (69.9%) | 196 (60.9%) | 192 (59.6%) |
| 02/19/12 | 330 | 242 (73.3%) | 235 (71.2%) | 229 (69.4%) | 235 (71.2%) | 236 (71.5%) | 200 (60.6%) | 193 (58.5%) |
| 02/26/12 | 296 | 214 (72.3%) | 212 (71.6%) | 214 (72.3%) | 213 (72.0%) | 204 (68.9%) | 196 (66.2%) | 181 (61.1%) |
| 03/04/12 | 171 | 119 (69.6%) | 121 (70.8%) | 116 (67.8%) | 120 (70.2%) | 111 (64.9%) | 109 (63.7%) | 92 (53.8%) |
| Postseason | 146 | 104 (71.2%) | 100 (68.5%) | 93 (63.7%) | 90 (61.6%) | 89 (61.0%) | 81 (55.5%) | 91 (62.3%) |
| Total | 3780 | 2781 (73.6%) | 2710 (71.7%) | 2650 (70.1%) | 2658 (70.3%) | 2605 (68.9%) | 2439 (64.5%) | 2261 (59.8%) |
| Expected | 3780 | 2963 (78.4%) | 2917 (77.2%) | 2863 (75.8%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/18/11 | 265 | 0.359 | 0.342 | 0.273 | 0.213 | 0.028 | 0.078 | 0.149 |
| 12/25/11 | 256 | 0.245 | 0.223 | 0.176 | 0.149 | 0.001 | 0.069 | 0.066 |
| 01/01/12 | 354 | 0.224 | 0.156 | 0.116 | 0.127 | 0.006 | 0.025 | 0.056 |
| 01/08/12 | 329 | 0.151 | 0.126 | 0.124 | 0.118 | 0.015 | 0.044 | 0.036 |
| 01/15/12 | 325 | 0.190 | 0.149 | 0.125 | 0.096 | 0.005 | 0.051 | 0.030 |
| 01/22/12 | 330 | 0.175 | 0.137 | 0.108 | 0.100 | 0.017 | 0.045 | 0.022 |
| 01/29/12 | 325 | 0.156 | 0.126 | 0.120 | 0.122 | 0.066 | 0.084 | 0.010 |
| 02/05/12 | 331 | 0.088 | 0.055 | 0.055 | 0.055 | 0.006 | 0.033 | 0.009 |
| 02/12/12 | 322 | 0.171 | 0.127 | 0.117 | 0.120 | 0.017 | 0.029 | 0.035 |
| 02/19/12 | 330 | 0.127 | 0.069 | 0.066 | 0.054 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.061 |
| 02/26/12 | 296 | 0.196 | 0.133 | 0.109 | 0.111 | 0.022 | 0.083 | 0.002 |
| 03/04/12 | 171 | 0.265 | 0.254 | 0.223 | 0.164 | 0.005 | 0.115 | 0.031 |
| Postseason | 146 | 0.104 | 0.087 | 0.071 | 0.050 | 0.013 | 0.007 | 0.014 |
| Total | 3780 | 0.200 | 0.160 | 0.136 | 0.117 | 0.011 | 0.048 | 0.042 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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