Game winner prediction
| # winners correctly predicted | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/17/06 | 269 | 198 (73.6%) | 192 (71.4%) | 182 (67.7%) | 195 (72.5%) | 190 (70.6%) | 156 (58.0%) | 161 (59.9%) |
| 12/24/06 | 234 | 181 (77.4%) | 181 (77.4%) | 170 (72.6%) | 174 (74.4%) | 172 (73.5%) | 142 (60.7%) | 161 (68.8%) |
| 12/31/06 | 319 | 218 (68.3%) | 212 (66.5%) | 204 (63.9%) | 214 (67.1%) | 203 (63.6%) | 208 (65.2%) | 180 (56.4%) |
| 01/07/07 | 324 | 230 (71.0%) | 225 (69.4%) | 215 (66.4%) | 206 (63.6%) | 194 (59.9%) | 199 (61.4%) | 185 (57.1%) |
| 01/14/07 | 322 | 232 (72.0%) | 215 (66.8%) | 215 (66.8%) | 218 (67.7%) | 215 (66.8%) | 185 (57.5%) | 197 (61.2%) |
| 01/21/07 | 317 | 227 (71.6%) | 224 (70.7%) | 218 (68.8%) | 214 (67.5%) | 206 (65.0%) | 191 (60.3%) | 182 (57.4%) |
| 01/28/07 | 331 | 223 (67.4%) | 228 (68.9%) | 224 (67.7%) | 225 (68.0%) | 226 (68.3%) | 200 (60.4%) | 186 (56.2%) |
| 02/04/07 | 321 | 243 (75.7%) | 223 (69.5%) | 220 (68.5%) | 225 (70.1%) | 208 (64.8%) | 203 (63.2%) | 180 (56.1%) |
| 02/11/07 | 318 | 215 (67.6%) | 217 (68.2%) | 214 (67.3%) | 206 (64.8%) | 204 (64.2%) | 194 (61.0%) | 177 (55.7%) |
| 02/18/07 | 327 | 242 (74.0%) | 225 (68.8%) | 218 (66.7%) | 214 (65.4%) | 223 (68.2%) | 199 (60.9%) | 194 (59.3%) |
| 02/25/07 | 299 | 219 (73.2%) | 209 (69.9%) | 213 (71.2%) | 211 (70.6%) | 204 (68.2%) | 200 (66.9%) | 166 (55.5%) |
| 03/04/07 | 161 | 116 (72.0%) | 114 (70.8%) | 105 (65.2%) | 114 (70.8%) | 109 (67.7%) | 99 (61.5%) | 91 (56.5%) |
| Postseason | 95 | 75 (78.9%) | 77 (81.1%) | 70 (73.7%) | 70 (73.7%) | 70 (73.7%) | 56 (58.9%) | 59 (62.1%) |
| Total | 3637 | 2619 (72.0%) | 2542 (69.9%) | 2468 (67.9%) | 2486 (68.4%) | 2424 (66.6%) | 2232 (61.4%) | 2119 (58.3%) |
| Expected | 3637 | 2809 (77.2%) | 2750 (75.6%) | 2685 (73.8%) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Score margin prediction
| Squared correlation coefficient | ||||||||
| Rankings date | # games | AASM+HCA | AASM | ASM | Colley | LRMC0 | APS | APA |
| 12/17/06 | 269 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.200 | 0.189 | 0.007 | 0.119 | 0.053 |
| 12/24/06 | 234 | 0.319 | 0.304 | 0.311 | 0.183 | 0.020 | 0.127 | 0.119 |
| 12/31/06 | 319 | 0.182 | 0.153 | 0.137 | 0.127 | 0.016 | 0.054 | 0.026 |
| 01/07/07 | 324 | 0.101 | 0.093 | 0.071 | 0.064 | 0.005 | 0.044 | 0.002 |
| 01/14/07 | 322 | 0.171 | 0.137 | 0.097 | 0.121 | 0.013 | 0.022 | 0.033 |
| 01/21/07 | 317 | 0.157 | 0.128 | 0.123 | 0.112 | 0.019 | 0.031 | 0.030 |
| 01/28/07 | 331 | 0.210 | 0.174 | 0.119 | 0.139 | 0.095 | 0.028 | 0.036 |
| 02/04/07 | 321 | 0.186 | 0.135 | 0.105 | 0.117 | 0.011 | 0.038 | 0.013 |
| 02/11/07 | 318 | 0.199 | 0.144 | 0.145 | 0.127 | 0.013 | 0.044 | 0.026 |
| 02/18/07 | 327 | 0.156 | 0.119 | 0.115 | 0.107 | 0.019 | 0.028 | 0.038 |
| 02/25/07 | 299 | 0.178 | 0.129 | 0.108 | 0.123 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.035 |
| 03/04/07 | 161 | 0.198 | 0.189 | 0.209 | 0.161 | 0.127 | 0.093 | 0.020 |
| Postseason | 95 | 0.276 | 0.293 | 0.101 | 0.200 | 0.078 | 0.011 | 0.023 |
| Total | 3637 | 0.208 | 0.177 | 0.151 | 0.135 | 0.015 | 0.052 | 0.036 | Combined plot |
x:act. y:pred. |
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